Erdogan’s “good news” marks a new period for Turkey amid geopolitical tensions. How will the discovery of natural gas in the Black Sea change Turkey’s political and economic position?
By Nikita Triandafillidis
President Erdoğan announcing the discovery of a new natural gas deposit in the Black Sea.
Photo credit: ekathimerini.com
“President Erdoğan announced that some 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas was discovered in the Black Sea. His announcement comes amid geopolitical tensions with Greece and a crippling economy that tries to stabilize itself. Will this be the new era for Turkey?”
All eyes on Erdoğan and a new period for Turkey
On Friday, President Erdoğan announced that some 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas was discovered in the Black Sea. On public television, he announced that the discovered reserves are only the first part and that the research operations will continue in the Black Sea. The discovered reserves are going to be available for public use in 2023. The natural gas was found inside Turkey’s exclusive economic zone, particularly in the Tuna-1 area. It is located at the crossroads of Bulgaria and Romania at a depth of 2,100 meters. Experts suggest that the quality of the gas is very high, which will possibly affect the cost of extraction.
The location of the Tuna-1 zone.
Photo credit: The Daily Sabah
The economics of the new natural gas discovery
On Friday, Turkey’s energy and natural resources minister, Fatih Dönmez, announced that the economic value of this discovery in the Black Sea comes to nearly $65 billion. He also mentioned the fact that the annual natural gas consumption in Turkey comes around 45–50 billion cubic meters, and the recent discovery in the Black Sea will meet the needs of Turkey for at least eight years. In the meantime, Turkey is aiming to draw the attention of energy companies to the Black Sea to pave the way for future discoveries that will help the country sustain itself and possibly increase its domestic gas production.
At the moment, the country is dependent on imports both via pipes and LNG (Liquified Natural Gas). The majority of the imports come from Russia, a significant economic partner, while Azerbaijan and Iran contribute a considerable amount of Turkey’s gas imports. It is yet unknown how much investment is needed in the area, this must be determined by the geological structure of the location and of course, the technology that needs to be used. The Turkish government is confident that by 2023 the reserves will be ready for public use.
The political praise for Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Yesterday, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan received congratulations on Turkey’s discovery from numerous leaders around the globe. Pakistan’s president, Arif Alvi, mentioned in a twitter post the importance of the finding and prayed for the prosperity of both nations.
A tweet from the president of Pakistan towards the president of Turkey
The foreign minister of Azerbaijan Jeyhun Bayramov had a phone call with his counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, to congratulate him for the discovery. Azerbaijan is a major political ally for Turkey that shares a significant amount of natural gas imports to the country.
Finally, Palestine’s President Mahmoud Abbas had a phone call with his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Lately, Turkey has come out to the world as the defender of the Palestinian cause. Recently the Turkish President condemned the peace deal that Israel and UAE signed and threatened to suspend ties between Turkey and UAE. Also, the two leaders talked about regional developments and bilateral relations.
Will Turkey achieve the economic and political status it desires?
Over the last years, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has tried to establish Turkey’s position in the political arena not just as an observer but as a valuable player. Recently Erdoğan made his message very clear with the conversion of the museum of Hagia Sophia to a mosque. Although he received international backslash for his move, especially from Greece, President Erdoğan does not bother to listen to his critics since his popularity has risen in Turkey. A few days ago, the Turkish government handed the Church of St. Savior in Chora widely known as Kariye in Turkish, to the religious authority of Turkey to be converted into a mosque. Turkey’s action has sparked anger again in Greece with the foreign minister Nikos Dendias, calling it an apparent provocation.
Apart from imposing himself domestically, President Erdoğan also tries to impose himself on his neighbors. The most recent geopolitical tensions include the area of the East Mediterranean. At the beginning of August, Turkey announced that it would send survey ships to waters off the Greek island of Kastelorizo. Greece instantly condemned the Turkish provocations. Both countries have disagreed for years over who has the right to develop key parts of the East Mediterranean region.
Erdoğan’s increased popularity since the coronavirus pandemic
Photo credit: Middle East Eye
A poll is showing the most popular Muslim leaders around the world.
Photo credit: The Islamabad Times
President Erdoğan might be able to hold on to his political power, but the newest discovery in the Black Sea still poses some questions. Top energy analysts have taken the announcement with a pinch of salt. Turkey has been trying to find natural gas reserves since 2010 with the help of big energy companies with no luck and many projects were abandoned back in 2017. However, the Turkish government is confident about its finds. President Erdoğan is taking a big gamble with his recent discovery since he is trying to stabilize the economy which has worsened considerably over the past year. Yesterday Fitch Ratings revised the Outlook on Turkey’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDRs at ‘BB-. The announcement comes at the same time when the Turkish lira saw its value falling right after the President’s speech.
2023 is still a long way to wait for Turkey to be able to harness its newfound natural resources. In the meantime, President Erdoğan must hang on to his political power and be represented as the sole defender of the Muslim world. A “David” against the economic deficit named “Goliath.”
