Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in turmoil: The Azeri-Armenian dispute that has destabilized the region for more than three decades
By Nikita Triandafillidis
“On Sunday, clashes broke out in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, also known as the Republic of Artsakh. Immediately a war on misinformation started from both sides, accusing each other of sparking the hostilities.
The region has been the main obstacle in normalizing the relations between Baku and Yerevan for almost 30 years. What is the history behind the conflict, what are the stakes for both countries, and what will be the answer of Russia and Turkey in the newest series of clashes in the region?”
The history of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the Azeri-Armenian conflict
The mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh in southwestern Azerbaijan has been a controversial enclave of ethnic and territorial conflict since 1988.
Although since 1994, there has not been an alarming escalation of violence, it seems that now tensions are rising once more with last Sunday’s exchange of fire between the two sides.
To understand what’s behind the escalation of violence between the Azeris and the Armenians we have to go back in time to inspect the situation.
Back in 1988, towards the end of the Soviet Union, Azeri military troops and Armenian separatists engaged in a life-costing war that left the Nagorno-Karabakh region as an independent state in control of ethnic Armenians when a peace ceasefire truce was signed in 1994. The region is also known as the Republic of Artsakh.
The conflict can be traced as far back as in the 19th century with religious tensions between Christian Armenians and Turkic Azeris.
However, in the 1920s when the Soviet Union took over the region, they established the autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh in an effort to stabilize the region and end the religious conflicts.
They established an ethnic Armenian majority within the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan.
Unfortunately, as the control of the Soviet Union started to loosen up in the area in the early 1980s, Azeri and Armenian tensions started to rise once more when the regional parliament voted for the unification of the area with Armenia.
In 1988 these tensions turned into a violent and bloody war. Soon enough, the war escalated to guerrilla warfare in the mountainous area.
It is hard to tell the exact number of casualties but according to international organizations that were in the area the number of fatalities between the years 1988–1994, is estimated at around 30.000 to 40.000 dead.
A ceasefire was signed on May 5, 1994, in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan with Russia being the peace mediator.
Internationally the region of Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized to be part of the Republic of Azerbaijan, however, due to a majority population of ethnic Armenians, the Armenian government sticks with its position of either allowing the people of the Artsakh to be an independent region or integrate with Armenia.
In 2016, tensions escalated again in the area that cost the lives of at least 250 soldiers and civilians in total from both sides.
However, the recent escalation of border clashes this Sunday might result in a full-scale war between the two sides, reviving the haunted memories of the violence of the 1988–1994 period.
The position and the political profile of the Armenian side
Armenia is a country in a landlocked situation between Turkey to the west and Azerbaijan to the east and as a result, the government for years boasts its historical presence in the area as the oldest surviving Christian nation in the world.
Its prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan emerged as the country’s leading figure in 2018, after he called for snap elections amid mass protests against the long-standing Republican Party.
Nikol Pashinyan has called for closer ties with Russia. Armenia is a mass exporter of diamonds in Russia and receives massive amounts of advanced weaponry from the Russian Federation.
He has vowed to maintain a strategic alliance with Russia since its independence in 1991 from the Soviet Union.
In 2015, Armenia officially joined the Russian-led Eurasian Union, positioning itself against the EU Association Agreement and placing itself as a major player in the Eurasian Union.
Regarding the situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Armenia was quick to accuse the Azeri government of escalating the tensions in the area and has vowed to counter-attack and preserve the autonomy of the Artsakh Republic as it is known in Armenian.
The Armenian Foreign Affairs minister, Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, and his ministry claim that behind the war escalation there is a large military and political support from Turkey that historically stands by the side of Azerbaijan.
In a recent statement, he claimed that the people of the Artsakh Republic are fighting against a full-scale coalition between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Historically, the relation between Armenia and Turkey is controversial especially since 1915, focusing on the Armenian genocide, something that Turkey is refusing to acknowledge that it ever happened.
As a result, the relations between the two countries are frozen and the recent statements of Turkey about them supporting Azerbaijan have not helped the situation in the region.
In the latest of events, Armenia has declared martial law and a total military mobilization, with the Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan calling for a readiness to defend the sacred land of Armenia against a planned provocation form the Azeri-Turkish alliance.
The position of Azerbaijan and the Turkish support
Over the last two decades, Azerbaijan has evolved from a poor, struggling state to an oil-rich nation that positions itself as a top energy player in Eurasia.
Several deals with major international energy producers have guaranteed the money flow in the country that is primarily focusing on reconstructing its army amid the recent border clashes with Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh area.
The President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has been the de facto leader of the country since 2003 when he took over the control of the country from his father, Heydar Aliyev.
Thanks to Aliyev, the international profile of Azerbaijan has completely changed, portraying the country as an emerging regional power rather than a failed ex-Soviet Union Republic.
However, he faces backlash from plenty of human rights groups that have accused him of using his governmental power to crack down on activists and journalists that oppose him.
Speaking to his security council on Sunday, Mr. Aliyev promoted the idea of a historical mission in order to repel Armenian forces that are trying to destabilize the nation. Specifically, he said:
“We must resolve this conflict so that historical justice can be restored. We must do so to restore the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan”
In addition, Azerbaijan enjoys the unconditional support of its closest ally, Turkey.
Since Sunday, Turkey has repeatedly expressed its support for Azerbaijan, labeling Armenia as the biggest geopolitical threat in the region and committing to stand with Azerbaijan against elements of invasion and unspeakable cruelty.
The fruitful relationship between Baku and Ankara lies in historical elements labeling their relationship as “Two Nations, One People” which is a popular saying used by both sides when talking about their close cooperation.
However, Turkey is also concerned about its energy security which is a vital aspect of its core security system.
Azerbaijan is a major oil exporter to Turkey and the recent escalations in the area have signaled an alarm in Ankara, who is dedicated to preserving the continuation of energy deliveries from Azerbaijan.
With that being said, Turkey is committed to standing by Azerbaijan and has expressed its opinion, that if Armenia leaves once and for all the territory that it occupies illegally, then there will be a chance of peace and harmony in the area.
The role of Russia in the Armenian-Azeri conflict
Historically, Russia is a major player in the South Caucasus region. Its influence can be traced as far back as the era of Tzars, the era of the Bolsheviks, and now in the era of Vladimir Putin’s new Russian Federation.
Russia however, compared to Turkey, has close and strong ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. With that being said, Russia has different versions of close ties with both countries.
In the case of Armenia, Moscow has deepened ties with Yerevan due to its military and economic cooperation. Armenia is part of the Eurasian Union and has emerged as a critical member of it.
The military support from Russia is critical to Armenia as it allows it to be a considerable force in the region. Also, Armenia hosts a Russian military base in its second-largest city, Gyumri.
On the other hand, the cooperation between Russian and Azerbaijan is also seen as a vital aspect of the Kremlin’s foreign policy.
Although Muslim-majority Azerbaijan is closely backed up by Turkey, both Russia and Azerbaijan enjoy fruitful cooperation, especially in the energy field.
Azerbaijan plays a vital role in the energy security agenda of Moscow. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have been supplied by Russia with advanced weaponry, from ammunition to missile launchers.
Back in 1994, Russia played a vital role in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a peace mediator for both sides.
Also, it played the same role back in 2016 when violence was erupted again, resulting in the so-called Four-Day War.
Russia has called for an end to hostilities promoting an essence of maximum restraint from both sides. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov told reporters that:
“Right now, the most important thing is to end the hostilities. This is no time to figure out who is right and who is wrong”
He further mentioned that Russia is ready to use its traditionally good and prosperous relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan to find an end to the violent escalations.
Crossing the red lines
While Russia is committed to solving the dispute peacefully, it might not be as easy as it was back in 1994.
This time Russia is not facing two former Soviet Union Republics with crippled economies and a clear absence of military power.
This time the situation is completely different. Armenia has emerged as a decent military power in the area while holding a significant role as a vital member of the Eurasian Economic Union.
On the other hand, Azerbaijan is now a major energy trading player that enjoys lucrative trading opportunities with its energy partners.
It has emerged as an oil-rich country that has the potential to be seen as a provider for oil in case the EU will look for alternative partners other than Russia.
Most importantly though, this time there is a new player in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Turkey.
However Turkey is smart enough not to cross the red line, and that line is a confrontation with Russia.
Russia’s involvement in the conflict and its absolute political power and influence in the region should not be confronted by external forces and Turkey treads carefully in “thin ice”.
Historically the Caucasus area belongs in the political sphere of Russia and it is a risky area for Turkey to be involved.
This is not like Syria, where Russia and Turkey have established some kind of cooperation and have deepened their diplomatic and military relations.
Analysts suggest that Russia will not tolerate any interference from another country in the region while the idea of joint military action from Azerbaijan and Turkey against Armenia will risk jeopardizing the relations between Russia and Turkey.
In that sense, Turkey has been very careful with its use of words.
It has highlighted its commitment to be a key military ally of Azerbaijan, providing it with technical expertise and arms sales but not deploying any Turkish military troops.
The Armenian Foreign Ministry, however, announced on Monday that there is evidence of Turkish militia fighting alongside Azerbaijan.
Also, Yerevan has accused Ankara of deploying F-16 fighter jets in the area.
Turkish officials have dismissed the Armenian claims, stating that this is a disinformation campaign of Armenia that is based on baseless accusations.
In the end, the involvement of Turkey in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict does more harm than good to deescalate the tensions.
Russia has repeatedly requested from the Turkish side to halt the backing of Azerbaijan. Any potential military activity will result in catastrophic consequences for the region.
This week will be crucial for the result of the escalated tensions between the two countries with only two options available, peace or war.
Russia will have a critical role in resolving the conflict, but with the involvement of Turkey, things will not be that easy.
Some analysts might argue that this conflict is another proxy war and a flashpoint to Russia’s and Turkey’s list of different interests around the world, whether that is in Libya, Syria, or in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia will need to step up and assume the role of the peace mediator once again but this time its political sphere in the Caucasus is a challenge.
We have to observe in the end if peace will be the primary option in the table or if the fragile situation between Russia and Turkey will result in a bloody war between Armenia and Azerbaijan that has the potential to change the geopolitical status quo of the area.
