The race to succeed Shinzō Abe has begun and everything is at stake. An in-depth analysis of the four main candidates.
By Nikita Triandafillidis
“Shinzō Abe announced his resignation due to health reasons, sending shock waves to Japan and the international community. Abe recently broke the record to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. He resigns from his office with mixed results domestically and abroad, leaving the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to find a new prime minister. Numerous people are willing to take their chances. We analyze the four main candidates and the challenges that they will have to face.”
The end of an era in Japan
Unable to continue with his duties as prime minister of Japan, Shinzō Abe announced his resignation the previous Friday due to health problems. At a televised news conference, Abe spoke about his decision.
“I have decided that I cannot stay as prime minister and I have to step down. I have done my best to get results but because of my illness I need treatment”
His resignation brings an end to his era and his accomplishment as the longest-serving prime minister. However, he also leaves office with mixed results domestically and abroad. Domestically, Shinzō Abe failed to achieve revising Japan’s pacifist constitution, something that he was seeking to do throughout his term.
Also, he failed to address the most important part of his so-called “Abenomics” , the new policy system that is meant to boost the economy, increase production and most importantly focus on Japan’s aging population.
On the international front, Mr. Abe is leaving office with many unresolved disputes with Japan’s neighbors. Japan’s relations with China have reached a new low, after the territorial disputes in the East China Sea over the Senkaku islands.
Also, the relationship between Japan and Russia still is viewed with mixed feelings over territorial disputes at the Southern Kuril Islands and the failure of conducting a formal peace treaty between the two states.
Finally, Mr. Abe leaves his office with new historical disputes with South Korea over forced sex slaves and wartime crimes, something that has not been resolved in years. The eager candidates will have to prove themselves capable of those challenges and the new ones that they will face as prime ministers.
Yoshihide Suga, the public face of Shinzō Abe’s government
Yoshihide Suga, 71, currently serves as Chief Cabinet Secretary since 2012 and for eight years now he has been the public face for the Liberal Democratic Party and a true loyalist to Shinzō Abe. Earlier this week he confirmed the rumors that he will join the race to succeed Mr. Abe. He emerges as a favorite to become Japan’s new prime minister.
Suga explained that his decision to join the race was simply an act to avoid political turmoil in a period of crisis. Mr. Suga expressed his willingness to continue the work of Shinzō Abe while steadily and firmly promoting the “Abenomics” policies that were established.
His humble beginning in politics and his loyalty to the former prime minister has earned him the right to be the most favorite candidate at the LDP. Apart from being a policy coordinator, he is also a close advisor to Mr. Abe and a great man behind the Liberal Party.
Mr. Suga will continue Shinzō Abe’s policies domestically and also internationally since he is a strong advocate for Japan’s warm relations with the U.S.A which he wants to further deepen. His mastery of behind-the-scenes politics and bureaucratic talent might be enough to get him the necessary votes from the LDP to become Japan’s prime minister.
Shigeru Ishiba, LDP’s harshest critic
Shigeru Ishiba, 63, is a former Director-General of Japan’s Defence Agency. He served in his role from 2002 until 2004 under Japan’s prime minister Junichiro Koizumi. Mr. Ishiba is a rare critic of Shinzō Abe. He advocates for a break from the current administration, often focusing on his political differences with Shinzō Abe and Yoshihide Suga.
Mr. Ishiba might not be the favorite candidate among party members but he has the support of the people. Recent polls show him being the choice of the people for replacing Shinzō Abe.
Ishiba was once considered to be the successor of Shinzō Abe, however, he was never publicly endorsed and his limited public profile might not allow him to seize the position.
Ishiba is a strong advocate for normalizing Japan’s ties with its Asian neighbors, especially now amid political and economic tensions between China and the United States. In numerous interviews, he stresses the fact that many Asian countries are finding themselves in a stalemate because of the ongoing rivalry between China and the United States. In one of the interviews he mentioned:
“We must build political and security relationships with Asia. For example, South Korea is a very important country from the standpoint of Japan’s national security. Japan should work hard to get to know South Korea better”
When asked about North Korea, Mr. Ishiba mentioned the importance of creating liaison offices in Tokyo and Pyongyang to ease the tensions.
Domestically, Mr. Ishiba is a strong critic of “Abenomics” as he characterizes the stimulus policy as unstainable but he is not willing to drastically change that for the time being.
Ishiba is still a strong critic of the LDP party but he points out that the people want an LDP government but with a different style from Shinzō Abe. He continuously has challenged the prime minister and as a result, he has gained plenty of support from Japan’s public. Mr. Ishiba seems to focus more on his alternative political style and his policies towards normalizing ties with Asian countries, hoping that his political gamble will bring him the right results in the LDP’s elections.
Fumio Kishida, the candidate with the stolen “thunder”
Fumio Kishida, 63, is the former Minister for Foreign Affairs of Japan, serving in office from 2012 to 2017. He has been widely seen as the successor of Shinzō Abe, but his latest announcement regarding his participation at the upcoming elections has brought doubts among many members of the Party and politicians close to Shinzō Abe.
He has been characterized by many analysts and influential politicians as a person that can serve under peaceful times, not troubled ones. Besides, he is not very popular among the people or party members. Many party members are afraid that he might lose to Shigeru Ishida in a leadership race and that is something the LDP cannot afford.
Kishida, who tries to distinguish him and the favorite of the Liberal Party Yoshihide Suga. With the slogan “From Division to Unity”, Mr. Kishida tries to stand out from the crowd and show character to manage and compete with Yoshihide Suga.
The public appearance rivalry between the two men, began when Yoshihide Suga, announced his intentions to succeed Shinzō Abe right before Fumio Kishida and declare himself as Abe’s successor, essentially stealing the “thunder” of Kishida, who now has to deal with Suga’s increasing popularity as the favorite candidate of the Party.
He is a strong advocate for economic reforms. He emphasizes the issue of inequality. Specifically on the fact that, although the economy has been boosted, many of the benefits don’t reach the people of the middle class or people that leave outside the metropolitan areas.
Kishida also focuses on aspects of protectionism and nationalism. He mentioned that Japan must take a lead in rule-making over the environment and nuclear disarmament for international cooperation and not just to shift the political power game. He wishes that his policies regarding nuclear disarmament and protection of the environment will make his appeal more to the people and at the same time show that he has different policies than Shinzō Abe, in a desperate attempt to reclaim any popularity that was lost because of Mr. Suga.
Tarō Kōno, the Defence Minister with high ambitions
Tarō Kōno, 57, is the current Minister of Defence since a reshuffle of the Cabinet back in 2019. Throughout his career, Mr. Kōno has gained key Cabinet positions such as foreign minister and defense minister but he always had great ambitions to become prime minister which he always mentioned in public.
Tarō Kōno is a candidate that is ranked highly by some opinion polls about his ability to succeed Abe. However, before he can even consider doing that he will need to win the endorsement of the leader of the party faction in which he belongs, Finance Minister, Tarō Asō.
He is a popular candidate, not only because of his excellent communication skills but also because of his ability to adapt to new ways of communicating with the people, for example, social media. On his Twitter account, he has more than 1.65 million followers.
Mr.Kōno is considered to be extremely rationalist but has been characterized by many party members as a person that lacks consideration for people around him, something that might come back like a boomerang considering how close relations are inside the Democratic Party.
Tarō Kōno must secure the trust of his part faction leader to have a chance at the party’s elections. His biggest challenge will be his ability to demonstrate political mastery and to lead the way for the LDP throughout the crisis and the mixed results of “Abenomics”
The challenges of the next day for the new prime minister
Whoever will end up as Abe’s successor will have to grapple with many issues domestically and internationally to maintain Japan’s key position in the global arena. Domestically, the new prime minister will have to deal with the postponed Tokyo Olympics that are scheduled for next summer and at the same time secure public health safety due to the COVID-19 virus and trying to tame it until a vaccine is suitable for use. From an economic standpoint, there has to be a decision regarding the so-called “ Abenomics” that might have boosted the economy but now it has taken a massive hit because of the COVID-19, and many wonder if those policies are suitable for a long-term period.
The country is also experiencing a new low of labor shortages as it comes with reality with its shrinking population, low birth rate, and new restrictions for foreign workers. Also, Japan might soon face a new problem with its obligations towards the elderly, with their pensions and providing them with healthcare.
Internationally, the new prime minister has to face new challenges and military aggression from China, especially in the East China Sea.
Besides China, there are still territorial disputes with Russia and historical disputes with South Korea regarding the treatment of Korean citizens during wartime.
The new prime minister will have to face that all alone while its closest ally, the United States is preoccupied with the November elections and an uncontrollable CoronaVirus outbreak.
In the end, the four main candidates will have to use their political “weapons” to increase their chances to become the leader of the LDP and the new prime minister.
Yoshihide Suga will rely on his loyalty towards Shinzō Abe and his popularity among influential members of the Party, while Shigeru Ishiba will gamble on the fact that he is the most popular politician among the people and he will continue to emphasize on his criticism of Shinzō Abe.
On the other hand, Kishida Fumio will have a hard time proving his worth to the Party and he will probably need to use his protectionism policies to his benefit. Finally, Tarō Kōno would need to focus on getting the endorsement of Tarō Asō, his party faction leader to have a chance to win the elections
Four different candidates each with their own skills compete to become Japan’s prime minister but they all share one common thing. They know that if they fly too close to the sun they will get burned.
