U.S. presidential elections 2020: The role of Russia
By Nikita Triandafillidis
“With the U.S. presidential elections being only a few days away, both candidates for the presidency have unleashed their campaign strategies to attract the American voters. Not so surprisingly, Russia has been at the epicenter of these publicity stunts and the approach that both candidates will have towards Russia will be crucial these last days. Why does the Kremlin approach have such an impact on U.S elections and how will the elections affect the future relationship between the U.S and Russia?”
The most important event in Russian domestic politics: The U.S presidential elections
With the U.S. presidential elections being only a couple of days away, the whole world has its eyes on the U.S. President Donald J. Trump and the Democratic Party candidate, Joe Biden.
The result of the upcoming elections will also determine the future actions of the Russian Federation, in its foreign policy and its domestic politics.
In its foreign policy agenda, Moscow will have to re-evaluate some of its strategies in case of a new president or if Donald Trump gets re-elected. Some of these strategies include sensitive issues such as the nuclear arms deals and the strategic relations with China, the potential new arms race, the sanctions, and even the energy exports around the globe.
Domestically, according to Kremlin analysts, if by any case there is a victory from the Democratic party and Joe Biden becomes the President of the United States, Russia might consider moving up any planned electoral elections sooner, so that the Kremlin would not have to worry about it and focus on potential new penalties and sanctions from the West.
Donald Trump and the Kremlin: A complex relationship
On the surface, the relationship between the U.S. President Donald J. Trump and the Kremlin administration might seem like a heavenly relationship but the reality is far from it.
There is some truth about the 2016 elections and that’s because the victory of Donald Trump was a dreamy surprise that not even the Kremlin officials expected. Trump’s policies towards Moscow have been more open, calling for no criticism but for promoting the idea of getting along with Vladimir Putin.
Besides that, his isolating policies and promotion of his slogan “Make America Great Again”, has caused a negative effect in the Western world by shattering the NATO alliance and keeping the U.S. outside of the international arena.
With that being said, his election in 2016 provided a promising future for the relationships of the USA and Russia, sweeping away the old Russophobic U.S. policies and creating a friendly element of cooperation between the two states.
However, the Kremlin’s ambitions were not exactly met successfully. After almost two years, it was clear that no deal could be reached with the American side, and despite any promises and hints for fruitful cooperation from Washington, the Trump administration continued its Russophobic rhetoric.
Hateful rhetoric, new sanctions, and shattered relations were on the rise these four years and it became very clear that the Trump presidency came with a high price for Russia.
Two of the most important obstacles that came for the Kremlin after Donald Trump became President, were the delay of Nord Stream 2 and the relationship with China.
For the first one, throughout these 4 years, there have been sanctions and threats towards EU countries supporting the gas pipeline project, making Russia more worried about the continuation of the project.
The second obstacle is the obsession that Donald Trump has with China. This obsession creates problems for the Kremlin’s efforts for the establishment of a new arms control agreement between the three countries.
After November the 3rd, the Kremlin is ready to confront these obstacles again and adjust to them depending on who is going to be the President of the United States.
Joe Biden: The main opponent of Vladimir Putin
The cold relations between Joe Biden and the Kremlin can be recently traced back to 2011 when Joe Biden, the former Vice President for Barack Obama had an official visit in Moscow.
In his visit, Joe Biden tried to “reset” the relationship between the USA and Russia, to create new cooperation that would scrap away the elements of the Cold War between the two countries.
However, his acts of “friendship” came to no use. When Joe Biden, met with opposition leaders in Moscow, he expressed his thoughts about Vladimir Putin and how he thought he should not run for President back in 2012.
This kind of talk is still memorable for the Kremlin’s officials and it seems that the same anti-Putin rhetoric is used in Joe Biden’s campaign in 2020.
A few days before the elections, it is clear that policies on Russia are on top of the agenda for Joe Biden. He is committed to change America’s foreign policy towards Russia, a country that he views as a major threat to American interests, foreign and domestic.
If by any chance Joe Biden wins the presidency on November the 3rd, there will be a swift reaction towards the approach on Russia, especially since Joe Biden would want to be the person to provide a punitive response towards the Kremlin.
Donald Trump himself has shown his pleasing relationship with Russia, creating a contradictory policy where he “barks” a lot but never “bites”.
Apart from the fact that a potential Biden presidency should revise the foreign policy towards Russia, there would be more challenges to face.
Some of these challenges are a new position towards a central nuclear deal that will expire by February 2021, a new approach towards climate change, a problem that has been ignored by Donald Trump, and a way to stabilize the fragile situation in Western countries that see the Trump administration as a threat to existing alliances such as the NATO.
Trump vs Biden: A win-win situation for Russia?
There is still growing support from many people that belong in the political elite of Russia that still support Donald Trump as their “man”. The man that can promote the cooperation between the two states. However, since his election, Donald Trump has left unfulfilled promises and the Kremlin seems ready to seek its chances to adapt if Joe Biden wins the presidency.
It is still pretty clear that having Donald Trump in the White House, despite his empty promises is still the best thing for Russia.
Even if is indeed uncontrollable by any external force, Donald Trump is still a valuable asset for the Kremlin, since he is capable of causing political chaos within the U.S. political system, and that’s something that his supporters have noticed.
It is not a secret that he still has a considerable number of supporters that see his attitude towards the political elite as a revolutionary act against the Deep State.
On the other hand, there are those inside Russia’s political elite that are ready to brace a new political era in the U.S. suggesting that a potential Biden presidency can also serve as a win-win situation for Russia.
They see the increasing instability and turmoil in the U.S. as a negative impact, especially on diplomatic terms. The unprofessionalism and childish actions from the U.S. side can be seen as more of a threat rather than a gift for the Russian side.
As a result, a traditional politician like Biden, a so-called “inside man” of U.S. politics can be more reliable for actually achieving any bilateral agreements like an extension of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty.
In the end, one thing is certain. Even if the political elite in Russia right now is divided between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the reality is that technically every outcome can be seen as a win for the Kremlin.
The only difference would be the way that the Kremlin would have to adjust and what would be the long-term consequences of each presidency.
The reelection of Donald Trump would mean that the domestic politics of the U.S will continue to be unstable and that the unity that the West had will be more fragile because of his isolation politics. But this will come with a cost.
In the case of a Joe Biden win, there is a possibility of trying to normalize the diplomatic relations between the two states with professionalism. Yet again a harsher attitude can be expected by the potential new administration.
The future of U.S.-Russia relations will depend on these elections and everything is at stake for Russia.
